Posts Tagged: future


25
Jan 11

Added Anxiety

As if concerns about the rising disparity between the haves and have-nots in the developed countries of the world, and most especially in those countries that led the industrial revolution, the U.K. and the U.S.A., were not enough, now comes a piece by Norm Augustine in Forbes magazine which adds to the  anxiety: “America Is Losing Its Edge in Innovation.” Essentially Augustine observes that while we still train much of the world’s scientists and engineers, they are no longer choosing to remain in the U.S.A. and work here. The result is that their application of their knowledge is happening elsewhere. Augustine blames American culture, i.e., parents especially, and educational institutions for not making it clear that science and engineering are great lives to lead. Along the way, he uses some interesting, if not particularly coherent, statistics:

  • U.S. consumers spend significantly more on potato chips than the U.S. government devotes to energy R&D.
  • In 2009, for the first time, over half of U.S. patents were awarded to non-U.S. companies.
  • China has replaced the U.S. as the world’s number one high-technology exporter.
  • Between 1996 and 1999, 157 new drugs were approved in the U.S.  Ten years later, that number had dropped to 74.
  • The World Economic Forum ranks the U.S. #48 in quality of math and science education.

I’m with you, Mr. Augustine, that we have allowed, I don’t know, bankers and lawyers — and athletes —  to become the praetorians of American capitalism, but I don’t think its education’s fault. I think the problem is much more complex and knotted and it’s going to take the kind of serious long-view thinking that there doesn’t seem much interest in embracing at the moment. As a folklorist, I feel like much of my job is to take good notes and try to describe all this as best I can, in hopes of beginning to understand it over the next decade. As a citizen, I’m kind of okay with America “losing its edge,” if by edge we mean domination. I would rather see our fine country decline a bit, retreat from imposition of empire by might, and re-emerge as a world power in ideas and production of things that matter. As a parent, and someone looking at retirement twenty or so years from now, I don’t like that I think it’s exactly during that span of time that my chance to save money for myself and my family is going to be most tested.


25
Jan 11

The Rise of (Concerns about) the Elite

Two vaunted periodicals, The Atlantic and The Economist, contain stories in their most recent issues about the rise of an elite. Both begin with the backlash that occurred against bankers in particular in both the U.S.A. and the U.K. — both of whom have encouraged the financial sector to gain power out of proportion to its actual utility — but from there The Atlantic article goes on to worry about the rise of a global elite and The Economist article goes on to worry about how inequality is rising in the industrial powerhouses of the U.S.A. and China but falling globally. Just as interesting is The Economist’s use of the term cognitive elite in the article title, “The rise and rise of the cognitive elite,” which they discuss a bit in the last third of the article. Here’s a snipped:

As technology advances, the rewards to cleverness increase. Computers have hugely increased the availability of information, raising the demand for those sharp enough to make sense of it. In 1991 the average wage for a male American worker with a bachelor’s degree was 2.5 times that of a high-school drop-out; now the ratio is 3. Cognitive skills are at a premium, and they are unevenly distributed.

The Economist article has a nice bit of statistical information:

In America, for example, in 1987 the top 1% of taxpayers received 12.3% of all pre-tax income. Twenty years later their share, at 23.5%, was nearly twice as large. The bottom half’s share fell from 15.6% to 12.2% over the same period.

I graphed it just for fun:

Twenty Years of American Wages

11
Dec 10

The Course of Open Courseware

Almost a year ago I wrote about the future of universities, especially regional public universities, as the internet — the content delivery system without peer or precedence — transforms the environment within which they operate. My argument then was, and is now, that, given the backwards shift — in terms of the direction we should be going — in education towards assessibility and normativity, that smaller universities will find themselves in the position of being facilitators/accreditors of “other people’s content” (OPC).1

In a recent post in The Chronicle of Higher Education, Kevin Carey argues much the same thing in light of Nature Publishing Group’s development of Scitable. The Nature Publishing Group publishes Nature and Scientific American among many other high quality journals, many of which carry an impressive price tag. Scitable, however, is free. Why? Because Nature thinks it can offset the costs of doing this both through corporate sponsorships in the short term and through the development of more scientists willing to pay for their other publications in the long term. (And the good news for the rest of us is that we can use their materials in our own classes.)

Two businesses, Caryey notes, should be worried by this: traditional textbook publishers and smaller public universities. The textbook publishers see the horizon and recognize their ship is sinking, but they are still collecting so much gold along their current trade route that they just can’t bring themselves to get a new ship.

Scitable, MIT OpenCourseWare, Open Yale Courses, the Carnegie Mellon Open Learning Initiative, iTunes U, among others, will also challenge another group, for they

spell trouble for people in the second threatened business: teachers at non-selective undergraduate institutions. Wealthy institutions in the business of sorting the most academically promising students and putting them in proximity to both one another and esteemed scholars will probably be operating in more or less the same way 100 years from now. So, too, will small liberal arts colleges that specialize in teaching. The future of everyone else is muddier. Although it’s hard to predict exactly who, how, and when, it seems very clear that in the long run, the number of organizations who decide it’s in their best interests to provide free open courseware will grow and the tools themselves will steadily improve. All of which is to say that if your career plans involve teaching introductory cell biology at a regional four-year public university or community college in 2030, you might want to reconsider.

Notice how Carey shifts the burden from the universities to faculty. It seems reasonably clear that the beachhead of administrators who have never published and taught, or who did so only enough to advance them toward a path in administration, is only going to expand into a lodgement, if it has not done so already. Because non-profits in general, and universities in particular, tend to be about twenty years behind in terms of current business theory and best practices, I think we are going to see a great deal of what was termed in the nineties “re-engineering of processes” in order to “align” various “workflows” with “assessment goals.” In this model, students working toward a degree are the boxes to be pushed through the pipelines and faculty are but cogs adding various pieces, skills and bits of knowledge, to the eventual machine to be produced. If those “bits o’knowledge” — can we just call them BOKs for now? — are already available as discrete units on the intarweb, then one doesn’t need a faculty member of creating bits (or BOKs), only a facilitator capable of transferring the knowledge and certifying that the transfer has occurred.

My, it just got dark in here.


  1. I think Ken Robinson, and others like him, makes a persuasive case against the mechanistic version of education that standardized testing in particular, and standardization in general, encourages. I am not, in principle, I should note against having standards, but for every standard I admire there is a corresponding set of standards and/or bureaucracy that enforces/polices the standard that sends me screaming into the night. 


22
Nov 10

Assessing the Future Landscape of Scholarly Communication

The report should probably really be titled “Assessing the Future Landscape of Scholarly Communication: A Really, Really Long Report” but in fact its subtitle is “An Exploration of Faculty Values and Needs in Seven Disciplines.” One of the disciplines profiled is history, which I chose as being closest to my own field of folklore studies. How long is that one report — one of seven, remember? — 115 pages. Brevity, thy name is not Center for Studies in Higher Education.

Here’s the index page for the whole report.


7
Aug 10

The End of Privacy Is Coming

ReadWriteWeb has a post that relays news from the Techonomy conference in Lake Tahoe: Google’s CEO Eric Schmidt explained that the end of anonymity on the web is coming because governments will demand it in order to avoid its misuse for criminal or anti-social behaviors:

The only way to manage this is true transparency and no anonymity. In a world of asynchronous threats, it is too dangerous for there not to be some way to identify you. We need a [verified] name service for people. Governments will demand it.

Schmidt also had good news: users are creating a lot of data. Oh, the bad news: all that data makes it possible not only to track you but to predict where you are going:

If I look at enough of your messaging and your location, and use Artificial Intelligence, we can predict where you are going to go.

As for the Techonomy conference itself, I can’t quite tell what to make of it. It’s either a nicely idealistic counter-balance to the Wall Street set who seem like modern day Vikings raping and pillaging every landscape they encounter when you read their philosophy:

Techonomy draws its inspiration from the ‘creative capitalism’ of Bill Gates, the ‘eco-pragmatism’ of Stewart Brand, the ‘big history’ of David Christian, and Bill Joy’s recent work on the economics of large-scale innovation. Each thinker in his own way points to a new humanism founded on the old notion that invention is what we do as a species. It is human nature to combine technology and economy to solve problems – to do so is both an opportunity and a responsibility. It’s who we are, and the only way we’re going to get to any solutions.

But sometimes the site feels a bit like certain strains of Puritanism, wherein you knew who the saints were because they were rich. You know, God wants you to be rich and the fact that you’re rich reveals that have been chosen by God. There’s a little bit of “we are the chosen” here.

Of course, it doesn’t help that the neo-logism Techonomy is just so awful. It practically screams “well-intentioned silliness.” I remember someone wanting to use informances at some point.


2
Aug 10

Quote of the Year

I had never come across this quote from Alan Kay:

The best way to predict the future is to invent it.


19
Jul 10

Whimpers from/for the Humanities

I am somewhat used to the chronicling of demise of the humanities to be found in the pages of the Chronicle of Higher Education and the The Times, but I must admit to be somewhat taken aback by similar treatments of the subject within the annals of scholarly societies themselves. At the most recent Digital Humanities meeting, Melissa Terras broached the issue. And then, and then, I was gleaning recent issues of Culture and Technology and came across a review by D. R. Koukal of Frank Donoghue’s The Last Professors: The Corporate University and the Fate of the Humanities. This link takes you to Project Muse, which houses the on-line PDFs of the journal. (ULL faculty and staff need to remember that we lose Muse and JSTOR — and, well, everything else — on August 31.) Donoghue’s argument, as I understand it from reading Koukal’s review, will come as no surprise to anyone keeping up with the last few decades of the humanities in the academy: the humanities lost the argument a while ago but are still in deep denial about their demise. That is, in the dominant rhetoric of immediate application and gain, the long-term, “life is complex” approach of the humanities is simply not seen as viable.

This is certainly not going to change in the immediate future as the world’s major economies, themselves in denial over the fact that they are actually in a depression and not a momentary recession, shrink. Those with jobs, anywhere but especially in the academy, are going to stand pat. Those without jobs are going to be pretty adamant about seeing immediate results. (Given the number of people unemployed and for how long, I would certainly not argue with their desire.)

This is a good time for humanists to roll up our collective and individual sleeves and not only produce the work we signed up to produce, but also to think about what more/else we need to be doing.

UPDATE: I missed this story in the Guardian about the cuts to universities in the United Kingdom. Story.


13
Apr 10

The Future of Books

This iPad app version of Alice in Wonderland is not everything one could hope — it appears to involve only a limited amount, and kind, if interaction — but it’s a clear start, and it begins to reveal just what even a small amount of imagination unbound from the conventions of what books have been can do.

Please note: I love books. Love, love, love them. I love the way they feel, and I love the way they work. I am working on a book of my own right now. But that doesn’t mean that I don’t hope that the new tablets won’t open up a world of possibilities for content creators. That’s where I hope all this is taking us: that we can fit the medium to the message, and not the other way around, as has been the case with a fairly limited set of media that were largely controlled by a limited number of organizations.


13
Feb 10

I’m Ready for my Close Up Mr. DeMille

The University of Louisiana has long encouraged faculty to consider distance learning as part of their overall portfolio of course offerings, but there really hasn’t been much of a push, nor much of a plan — so far as I could tell — to really make it happen. With the hiring of a director for distance learning efforts, I am guessing it might be moving forward on that collection of burners that represent any large organization.

That’s good news. As I noted yesterday, universities, especially hybrid universities like UL-Lafayette, are going to have to re-establish for themselves and for the public what it is they do and how they go about doing it.

So here’s a seemingly trivial dimension that I think will play a much more significant role than many of us imagine: production values. Too many on-line offerings from universities are videos of professors lecturing in a classroom. I am currently enjoying a course on developing apps for the iPhone — gearing up for thinking about the iPad don’t you know. The course is on iTunes University and it’s from Stanford with faculty and guests from Apple. All they did was stick some cameras in a classroom, give the folks up front wireless microphones — which they sometimes have to pass back and forth — and turned them loose.

It’s a great start, but with only a little more effort, we might have something really stunning:

It wouldn’t take much to pull this off: you paint a wall of a classroom white, or black — or even green for cool keyed effects, and then you could work with a professor and a camera. Anything worth a close up, the producer could note as worth coming back to and have the faculty member repeat what they said for a cut to the close-up. With a little practice over a few iterations, I imagine it would become a pretty straightforward affair of when to zoom out to leave room for visuals to appear beside the presenter and when to zoom in.


12
Feb 10

Hacking Education

In a number of posts I have argued that the nature of higher education is changing and those universities that recognize that fact and tackle how they want to undergo the transformation are the ones that are going to be happier about their future.

One of the things that has worried me is while the super-efficient and super-rich distribution system that the internet offers makes it easy for all nodes to be both producers and consumers, it also makes it easier for nodes that previously only had access to local resources to turn to global ones. Such a reality is clearly one of the driving forces behind a number of universities making a variety of their educational materials available on-line. MIT led the way with its Open Courseware, but Harvard and Stanford have followed. Harvard mandated that all faculty publications must be openly accessible on the university’s own infrastructure, and Stanford has engaged in a number of fascinating enterprises, including the Stanford Engineering Everywhere (SEE) initiative — and let’s not forget iTunes University courses like the one I’m enrolled in on iPhone app development.

These universities and others like them seem to be giving it all away. If education is only about information transfer, then they’ve got nothing left, right? But education isn’t only that. Sure, undergraduate and graduate students do pack a lot into their heads during their matriculation at university, but a good portion of that packing, if universities are doing their job right, is through experiences in thoughtfully structured learning environments.

So, part of what these universities are doing is good old-fashioned advertising and/or marketing, building their brand through both their generosity — and they are being generous, make no mistake about that — as well as clearly articulating for potential students that if you want to be in the presence of knowledge creators and not only get the knowledge but also learn how to create it, then you’ll need to pay tuition and, as a friend of mine once said, “be there to get it.”

Within such a system, there is room between producers and consumers for facilitators, or, as Jeff Jarvis terms it, consultants. Here’s Jarvis on on what’s happening:

In education, we’re fooling ourselves if we think that we can maintain our scarcity-based economy: only so chairs to soak in the wisdom of that teacher. It’s a wildly inefficient system — especially in our industrial-age knowledge factories that try to turn out people who memorize the same answer instead of invent new ones.

Earlier, I’ve speculated about the idea of an educational ecosystem with star professors whose lectures are widely available (as is the case with MIT and Stanford) and who gain value (books, speaking gigs) through being broadly distributed. Then we have local tutors who give us the specialized instruction and consultation we need.

Thus we have performers and consultants. There is still value in unique performance. We will continue to buy tickets to concerts by stars (but we won’t pay for the Muzak covers of their songs on elevators). We will buy books. We will pay to sit in a movie theater with popcorn. The new competition in the case of media and performance isn’t that someone will make a good-enough version of what we do but that there is more call for the public’s attention.

[Jarvis' post on The Business Insider]

I’m not sure that Jarvis has it entirely right, especially since within his model of the eco-system education is equivalent to media and performance, but I do think that he has the star notion right — even though it runs exactly counter to the ideals of the internet.

Jarvis isn’t entirely right because he doesn’t entirely get that the consultant, or facilitator, possesses value over and above his/her audience. In fact, Jarvis is entirely looking the multiple audiences that educators regularly face. It would be great if educators only had to worry about having an audience of committed students seeking to maximize their time to learn. That would be amazing. But that isn’t all educators face. Instead, there is at least one other market to which they report: those stakeholders that require education to certify that its output, students, possess some minimum set of knowledge(s) and skill(s).

As anyone in education knows, the certification business has become a race to the bottom in terms of funding: how little do we need to invest in order to get the minimum return? This is much of what lies behind standardized testing and, indeed, the current efforts to “streamline” higher education in Louisiana.

Certification is not where a hybrid university wants to get caught. Once you are simply a certificate issuer, your class enrollments go up, your faculty’s teaching loads go up, and pretty sure you are not sure if you are simply a diploma mill with some real estate. Let me be clear, teaching universities can be amazing places, and some of my happiest colleagues are at teaching colleges and universities. But those are typically private institutions who have made it clear to their audience of students and, in particular, their parents, that facilitation requires either faculty also capable of and engaged in content creation or that it requires, as it does, the seeming luxuries of time and face-to-face interaction, which only comes with smaller class sizes and reasonable teaching loads.

As the major research universities increasingly give away their content, there is going to be enormous pressure on the hybrids — those like my own dear little U — to give up content creation and simply become facilities, quite literally. One need look no further than the recent statements by the Committee to Streamline Higher Education that there can be no more than one major research university in Louisiana. (The statement is left somewhat ambiguous but comments from the committee members reinforce the idea that research is research and everyone else should bow out.)

This is so much foolishness, and it turns the wisdom upon which the internet was built upside down and returns us to the industrial model of the nineteenth century where all raw materials flow into a central factory from which all finished goods flow. The information, and knowledge creation, economy is a distributed one. Not all nodes can or will be equal, but each must be allowed to contribute to the larger network. To rule out a priori their potential production is to cut off the margins, exactly the place where we now know innovation occurs.


11
Feb 10

Louisiana at Risk if China Slows Down

Yeah, I had a wha? moment, too, but I came across the following information while checking out the Business Insider‘s Chart of the Day. Economists speculate that as the Chinese economy wobbles a bit — because everybody else is wobbling — a number of U.S. states/industries are more exposed to risk than others. They have ranked the states that have the worst exposure to risk from any significant slowdown in China. Of the top ten with the most exposure, Louisiana is fourth, following only behind California, Washington, and Texas.

Here is the relevant info:

2008 exports: $3.5 billion
Exports to China growth, 00-08: 230%
Top exports: Crop Production, Chemicals, Processed Foods
Potential loser if China craps out: Dow Chemical Co. (employs 1,700)
Source: US-China Business Council

To see all the states at risk: here’s the complete slide show.

The good news here is that it is far from certain that the Chinese economy will indeed slowdown, nor is it clear how much it will slowdown.

And, yes, I read business magazines. I read them all the time.


7
Feb 10

The Future Experience of Media

The iPhone, and now the iPad, are establishing that there is a place, even with the consumer utility device market, for general computing devices. In particular, Game Developer Research has just its report on the current state of game development. The 100-page document is available on their site and is covered in the the current issue of Game Developer magazine. Some of the trends revealed in the report include that the economic downturn has more developers working in smaller companies (less than 50 employees) and an increased focus on the mobile device market:

Of these mobile developers, nearly three quarters of that group are targeting iPhone and iPod touch development, a number more than twice the reported support for traditional handhelds like Nintendo DS and Sony PSP.

This only confirms our own household’s decision to retire our daughter’s Leapster that we had paired with my old iPod Video for road trips and mobile entertainment. Both were handily replaced by an iPad Touch that not only has the games and the videos of the previous two devices but also flash card activities, wikipedia, and other applications. General computing, baby, general computing.


30
Jan 10

Some More Initial Thoughts on the iPad

First, the LED screen will not be there for long. Color e-ink with decent (enough) frame rates for watching video is on its way — or at least so I am told. Apple knows that this thing isn’t perfect, but I suspect they also saw that the technology in this category was lagging behind market interest and demand. iPad 1.0 is a placeholder in some ways.

Second, if I was 20 years younger, I would stop what I am doing now and immediately immerse myself in everything it took to develop native apps for this and the other devices that are going to copy it. This is the computing device that most people have wanted for a very long time. For better or worse, most folks are consumers, not producers. The IT revolution — Tim Berners-Lee core concept — was a blurring of that distinction. We have seen a lot of movement in that direction, and there are certainly a lot more people producing content than there was twenty years ago, but I think we are also seeing a flattening of the growth curve and a kind of stabilizing of who is going to do what for the time being. The iPad addresses that flattened curve very, very well.

producers-to-consumers


19
Jan 10

Flash Is Tomorrow’s IE6

The news may finally be sinking in at organizational IT shops all around the globe: Internet Explorer 6 on Windows XP is a security vulnerability so great that continuing to use it reveals a level of incompetence that no on wants to risk. But instead of beating IE6 or the organizations that grew to depend upon it relentlessly over the head, let’s admit that the root problem was that organizations were simply trying to make web pages to things that they could not yet do. We now call these things web apps and, well, everybody is doing it. It’s the coolest, greatest thing ever, don’t ya know?

The problem is that HTML is not an API, it’s a presentational framework. Getting <video> and <audio> in is one thing. Some of the other things we now expect web pages, er, apps to do is a bit trickier, even in the era of seemingly ubiquitous javascript. In order to do these things, we are turning to yet another technology that has potential disastrous effects … Flash.

So, go ahead and beat up on ActiveX and IE6 and all the fools who rely upon them. But look closely at your own infrastructure: got Flash?


5
Jan 10

Humanities and the “Wealth of Nations”

As we begin this new year in 2010 with no new works coming into the public domain, it’s important to think about how exactly two things we like to create and accumulate, knowledge and wealth, get created. Tim O’Reilly, founder of O’Reilly Press has a great post that lays out some of the dimensions in terms of commerce, but much of what he note applies equally well to knowledge and should be something humanists think about.